为什么中国经济越早从疫情引发的一个听之风险中走出来，美国经济才可能越早从通胀的风险中走出来呢？这里是当前宏观经济风险的第三期，之前说的中美两国各自的经济风险，这一期我们来聊全球的大体情况，大家觉得现在三大经济体中美欧谁的压力更大一点？
Why is it that the sooner China’s economy gets out of the risk of the epidemic, the sooner the US economy can get out of the risk of inflation?This is the third issue of the current macroeconomic risks. We talked about the respective economic risks of China and the United States before. In this issue, we will talk about the general situation of the world. Who do you think is under more pressure among the three major economies, the United States and Europe?
国内最近地产相关的股债一直在涨，资金的情绪非常的高昂，似乎就是让人觉得这一回只能靠房地产了，但其实你去观察，直到现在非常实质性的针对房地产的大宽松政策似乎还是没有的。再加上周四的时候，广州接力带一日游，当晚就被叫停燕郊首套房，降低到两成首付的，也被银行紧急叫停，那政策继续再给大家一种模棱两可的状态。我认识一位大佬对我说了几句话，他说任何时候资金的疯狂都是因为知道了底牌，任何时候资金的瓶颈都不是因为在等待看清你的底牌，而任何时候资金的恐慌，那是因为看到了意想不到的画面，我觉得这段话可以帮助我们理解现在的整个市场的状态。
Domestic real estate related stocks and bonds have been rising recently, and the sentiment of funds is very high, which seems to make people feel that this time we can only rely on real estate, but in fact, you can observe that until now, there seems to be no very substantive easing policy for real estate.In addition, on Thursday, the Guangzhou relay one-day tour was suspended that night, and the first suite in Yanjiao was reduced to 20% down payment, which was also urgently stopped by the bank. The policy continued to give everyone an ambiguous state.I know a big man who said a few words to me. He said that the craziness of funds at any time is due to knowing the cards. The bottleneck of funds at any time is not due to waiting to see your cards clearly. The panic of funds is due to seeing unexpected pictures. I think this passage can help us understand the current state of the whole market.
状态虽然资金很小博弈，但政策还迟迟不露出底牌。
Although the state of funds is very small game, but the policy is still slow to show the bottom card.
这两天高层开会一直在强调，当前国际国内有些突发因素已经超出了预期。从去年底中央经济工作会议上，高层已经意识到说今年经济有三重的压力，需求收缩，供给冲击，还有一个预期转弱，这三重压力到现在人在不不断的往更加深层次的方面去演化，而高层这一句超出预期明显说明形势已经不容乐观。
In the past two days, high-level meetings have been emphasizing that some unexpected factors at home and abroad have exceeded expectations.From the Central Economic Work Conference at the end of last year, the top level has realized that there are three pressures on the economy this year, demand contraction, supply shocks, and an expected weakening. These three pressures are now constantly evolving to a deeper level, and this sentence from the top level exceeds expectations clearly shows that the situation is not optimistic.
可以说当前全球面临三大风险，而每一个的处理应对稍有不慎都会引发金融市场的动荡，而每一个也都刚好对应着当下中美欧三大主要经济体的投资符号问题，这三个风险分别是一疫情和全球化分裂带来的一个供应链错配危机，经济衰退风险。二美联储货币紧缩引发的连锁效应，包括新兴国家的货币危机，也包括美国本身的一个经济衰退风险。三是俄乌战争进一步升级带来的大宗商品危机。最头痛的现在应该是欧洲2022年本来准备迎接的复苏，现在基本没戏了，欧战争拖越久，欧洲经济的阴霾也就越大，全球大宗商品已经因为俄乌而加速，陷入了一场经济危机中，而欧洲就是直接被俄罗斯扼住了一个能源的喉咙，天然气价格一直在涨，通胀率已经创了历史的新高，到达了7.5%的水平，经济受到了枪炮的威胁，企业的投资也会被抑制。
It can be said that the world is currently facing three major risks, each of which will lead to financial market turbulence if handled carelessly, and each of which corresponds to the current investment symbols of the three major economies in China, the United States and Europe. These three risks are a supply chain mismatch crisis brought about by the epidemic and the division of globalization, and the risk of economic recession.Second, the knock-on effects of the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening include a currency crisis in emerging countries and a risk of recession in the United States itself. The three is the commodity crisis brought about by the further escalation of the war between Russia and Ukraine.The biggest headache now should be the recovery that Europe was prepared to meet in 2022, but now it is basically over. The longer the European war drags on, the greater the haze of the European economy will be. Global commodities have accelerated because of Russia and Ukraine, and have fallen into an economic crisis. Europe is directly strangled by Russia as an energy source. Natural gas prices have been rising.Inflation has hit a record high of 7.5%, the economy is threatened by guns, and business investment will be suppressed.
如果欧央行跟随加息，保不准南欧那几个高债务，国家又再一次引爆一轮债务危机，欧盟这一届领导人的表现并不出色，战争演变到现在各方都骑虎难下，这已经是政治利益的问题了，可能全球秩序的未来就取决于俄乌战争的结果，所以欧盟就算是付出代价也要扛着。如果进一步升级欧盟就要扛越多，在政治安全面前，现在经济安全只能往后靠。而中美两大国虽然也不算很轻松，但至少还有一些可以主动作为的空间，只不过我们要清醒地认识到两个大国的经贸联系是非常紧密的，你中有我中有你，谁都无法独善其身。
If the European Central Bank follows the interest rate hike and fails to guarantee the high debt in southern Europe, the countries will once again trigger a debt crisis, the performance of the EU leaders is not outstanding, and the war has evolved to a difficult time for all parties to ride tigers, which is already a matter of political interests, and the future of the global order may depend on Russia.So even if the EU pays the price, it will bear it. If the EU is further upgraded, it will have to shoulder more and more. In the face of political security, economic security can only be backward now.Although China and the United States are not very relaxed, at least there is still some room for initiative, but we should clearly realize that the economic and trade ties between the two powers are very close, and no one can be alone.
举几个例子，比如说美国现在就非常需要中国的帮助，需要中国工厂开足马力生产美国对中国商品对中国供应链的依赖，不是短期内喊几句去中国化就能够解决得了的。以前欧美通胀总是实现不了2%的目标的时候，就觉得是中国商品在输出通缩，而现在却很担心中国的商品在输出通胀，就拿这一轮疫情来说，我我们这一次很多的工厂的生产物流受到的影响和主治是非常大的，货很难按时交付出去，供给不足，美国国内对一个商品的需求还保持一个非常旺盛的水平，所以美国的通胀就会越来越顽固，加息缩表也会来得越猛，美联储已经决定5月份加息50个基点同步开启，每个月缩表950亿，一年算下来就要缩减超过1万亿美元。
To give a few examples, the United States needs China’s help very much now. It needs Chinese factories to produce at full capacity. The dependence of the United States on Chinese goods and Chinese supply chains can not be solved by shouting a few words of de-Sinicization in a short time.In the past, when inflation in Europe and the United States always failed to achieve the target of 2%, they thought that Chinese goods were exporting deflation, but now they are worried that Chinese goods are exporting inflation. Take this round of epidemic for example, the production logistics of many factories has been greatly affected and affected. It is difficult to deliver goods on time. The supply is insufficient.The demand for a commodity in the United States is still at a very strong level, so the inflation in the United States will become more and more stubborn, and the interest rate hike and contraction will become more and more fierce. The Federal Reserve has decided to raise interest rates by 50 basis points in May, with a monthly contraction of 95 billion, which will reduce more than $1 trillion a year.
美联储里面鹰派的声音已经认为央行已经落后于形势，年底至少要加息到3%~3.25%的水平，所以这会是近30多年来美联储力度最大的一次货币紧缩。而在这个过程中，各国央行的步调节奏不一致，也会给全球资金流动带来一个错乱，因为现在各国的经济复苏的状况是非常分化的，经济周期错位，所以导致金融周期也没有办法同步。那么金融市场到底是不是准备好来应对这样的乱局，谁都不知道新兴市场到底能不能够承受这一波货币贬值的冲击，债务的冲击谁都不知道，还可以。
The hawkish voices in the Federal Reserve have believed that the central bank has lagged behind the situation and will raise interest rates to at least 3% to 3.25% by the end of the year, so this will be the biggest monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve in more than 30 years.In this process, the inconsistent pace of central banks will also bring a disorder to global capital flows, because the economic recovery of various countries is very differentiated, and the economic cycle is misplaced, so the financial cycle can not be synchronized.So is the financial market ready to deal with such a mess? No one knows whether emerging markets can withstand the impact of this wave of currency devaluation. No one knows the impact of debt.
再举一个例子中，中国现在越想要去刺激经济，可能就会越加速美国的加息。上一次老美加息的时候，两国之间的沟通协调机制还是不错的，15年伦暂缓加息很大的因素就是因为中国当时经济承受不大住，后来中国搞供给侧改革涨价去库存搞货币化棚改，其实也是帮忙拉动了一波全球的需求，带动全球经济同步复苏，才给了后来老美继续加息的底气。但这一次一我们并不知道这种协调机制还能不能发挥作用，毕竟两国关系已经恢复不到从前了。
To take another example, the more China wants to stimulate its economy now, the more it may accelerate interest rate hikes in the United States.The last time the United States raised interest rates, the communication and coordination mechanism between the two countries is still good, 2015 Lun suspended interest rate hike is a big factor because China’s economy was not able to withstand, and then China engaged in supply-side reform to inventory monetization, in fact, also helped to stimulate a wave of global demand, driving the global economy.Only then did the United States continue to raise interest rates. But this time, we do not know whether this coordination mechanism can still play a role, after all, the relationship between the two countries has not been restored to the past.
二是通胀的环境已经改变了，一旦中国从需求萎靡转入到需求旺盛的阶段，全球通胀更加了不得了，现在需求我们还是萎靡的，但是国内的供给受到疫情的影响，没有办法扩张，通胀预期已经抬头了，这就是为什么这两天开会一直在强调一句话，保持经济运行在合理区间，就是稳就业稳物价，一般你物价高就业还是会不错的，除非进入一种情况就是滞涨。
Second, the inflation environment has changed. Once China turns from sluggish demand to strong demand, global inflation will be even worse. Now we are still sluggish in demand, but domestic supply is affected by the epidemic, there is no way to expand, and inflation expectations have risen. This is why the meeting has been emphasizing a sentence these two days.To keep the economy running in a reasonable range is to stabilize employment and prices. Generally, high prices and employment will be good, unless you enter a situation of stagflation.
前几天国际清算银行的负责人有一个演讲，说要迎接一个高通胀高利率的时代，因为通胀环境已经发生了一种更加持久性的转变，而各国央行也要转变自己的心态，老是靠这种反反复复的宏观政策的刺激是无法从根根本上改变问题的，所以他提出要去搞供给侧改革，要提高生产力，这好像有点学我们的样子，只不过我们的供给侧改革是应对产能过剩需求不足，而欧美的供给侧改革是应对产能不足，而商品需求过多，那么你可以去试着推演未来全球的一个生产消费版图又会进入一个什么样的割裂状态。
A few days ago, the head of the Bank for International Settlements gave a speech saying that we should welcome an era of high inflation and high interest rates, because the inflation environment has undergone a more lasting change, and central banks should also change their mentality, always relying on this repeated macro-policy stimulus can not fundamentally change the problem.So he proposed to carry out supply-side reform and improve productivity, which seems to be a bit like us, but our supply-side reform is to deal with excess capacity and insufficient demand, while the supply-side reform in Europe and the United States is to deal with insufficient capacity and excessive demand for commodities.Then you can try to deduce what kind of fragmentation the global production and consumption landscape will enter in the future.